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The View | How Hong Kong leader’s Middle East tour could herald seismic shift in China-Saudi Arabia relationship

  • As geopolitical winds tilt China and Saudi Arabia towards greater interdependence, Hong Kong could play a critical role in unlocking both countries’ strategic objectives
  • John Lee must position Hong Kong to deliver unique value in the emerging petro-yuan market in a way that complements Riyadh’s development as a trading centre for renminbi securities

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President Xi Jinping (left) is greeted by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as he arrives in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on December 8, 2022. Photo: Saudi Royal Palace via AFP

A covert visit by US Treasury Secretary William Simon to Saudi Arabia in July 1974 radically transformed global energy and financial security. An ensuing deal, under which the Middle East kingdom agreed to finance US government deficits in return for American military aid and equipment, laid the foundation for decades of economic growth and prosperity, and extended the dollar’s linchpin role in international financial markets.

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu’s coming tour of the Middle East could herald a similarly seismic shift in the financial and strategic relationship between China and the Arab nation, and deepen Hong Kong’s role in international finance.

Neither experienced in international relations nor well versed in the operations of global capital markets, the former policeman seems an unlikely ambassador for such a mission in financial diplomacy. Then again, William Simon was a brash former bond salesman, hardly known for his diplomatic finesse (he once called the Shah of Iran, a close US ally, a “nut”).

What Lee has in his favour are geopolitical winds tilting China and Saudi Arabia towards greater interdependence, and Hong Kong’s criticality to unlocking both countries’ strategic objectives.
Rapid economic development has catapulted China into the position of the world’s largest oil importer. Meanwhile, the shale oil revolution has transformed the United States from Saudi Arabia’s largest customer into a major competitor in oil exports. This has called into question the fundamental strategic rationale for continuing American military support to the Middle East.

As major exporters, both China and Saudi Arabia have accumulated large reserves of US dollars. The US’ increasing weaponisation of the dollar system against strategic rivals threatens both countries.

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